The Treasury’s “Scotland analysis: Currency and monetary policy” is a shameful document, a vacuousl,y polemical piece of politicking as politicised as any anonymous SpAd’s tweet. “Positively”, its overall effect makes clear Scottish independence would require changes that could, probably would incur costs, except any one with half a brain knew that already. However, its actual content – illustrated below with dirty, great big verbatim quotes - is atrocious.
Let’s start
with the politicking and the self-servingly contradictory back-flips this
entails; “The structure of the Scottish economy is very close to that of the UK as a whole and Scotland
and the rest of the UK follow
very similar business cycles ... deep economic integration across the UK”.
Cool, cos then
the paper states “(t)his ensures that monetary policy set by the Bank of
England is on average well suited to the Scottish economy” i.e. the status quo
is just hunky dory thank you very much.
Except on
the next page the paper states Scotland
actually is structurally different, having “a narrower economic and fiscal
base, and be exposed to a number of volatile sectors such as finance and energy
(including North Sea oil and gas).”
So does
that mean current monetary policy and policy arrangements aren’t suited to the
Scottish economy? Nope, rather, moving swiftly on, it means an independent,
Scottish economy would be more volatile and that “(t)his volatility would be
felt regardless of the currency and macroeconomic framework adopted by a new
Scottish state”.
By
contrast, the UK
economy can “absorb fluctuations to deliver comparatively stable economic
conditions. This is a pre-requisite to the certainty and stability required to
allow individuals, households and businesses to plan ahead for the future.”
God, see
now I’m all confused cos I thought the “structure of the Scottish economy is
very close to that of the UK
as a whole and Scotland and
the rest of the UK
follow very similar business cycles”.
Thankfully,
the paper then explains “In the event of independence, institutional and policy
divergence between Scotland
and the continuing UK
would be likely to lead to a weakening of economic integration. These effects would
cause monetary policy set by the Bank of England to become less appropriate
over time for an independent Scottish state’s economic conditions“.
Phew, so ignoring
the fact no reference is made to timescales i.e. are we talking 5, 10 or 50
years for this structural change to occur (give or take the kind of devastation
a Thatcher might wreak, obviously), really the relationship between the Scottish
and the UK economy is like Schrodinger’s cat, being both the same and different
at the same time. Plus when you introduce a temporal dimension the economies
are simultaneously diverging and presumably converging what with us all being
globalised and what no. It’s just, it’s just, the one constant here is that the
claims appear to vary depending on the argument being made; when the status quo
is good, Scotland is the same, but when change would be bad, Scotland is
different. That’s one thing to consider I guess, except its hard to do so
because the paper then gets worse, much, much worse.
This worse
takes various forms. One is an obsession with size like when it’s stated “An
independent Scottish state would be a different economic entity. An independent
Scottish state would be a relatively small economy among developed nations.
Economic size is not, in and of itself, an important driver of an economy’s success,
nor does it determine the choice of a currency regime. But the dynamics of
small countries’ economies are inherently different” Cool, except this “and of
itself” is to forget GDP per head is more important – think Switzerland or
Lichtenstein - and within that the distribution of wealth and incomes is what
really matters e.g. the Chinese economy/penis may well be bigger than the UK’s, but I’d
rather be an average earner here than there.
Then there’s
dull realities like how since 2007 an economy disproportionately exposed to
finance and oil and gas would have seen these sectors arguably balance each other
out. And to get even more current, the paper ignores how the acquisition of
HBOS plus RBS shrinking its balance sheet by 10s of billions every other
quarter means finance is smaller than it was.
Rather than
that kind of malarkey, the paper instead states the “UK’s key national
institutions – including the Bank of England – would operate on behalf of the
continuing UK as before, but would have no power to act in or on behalf of an
independent Scottish state, and no obligation to create the structures
to do so”. Which means what exactly?
Right now
the Bank of England has one wee Scottish office (in Glasgow) and while I’ve
always found its Scottish agents to be charming fellows (less sure about the
calibre of the deputies), is the potential loss of a couple of fact-finding
bods being seriously presented as an argument against independence?
Nah, that
would be incredibly stupid that would so here lets give ‘em the benefit of the
doubt and assume the argument is instead to do with monetary policy itself.
Unfortunately, no examples are given of how Scottish interests actually feature
in current policy setting arrangements, only that the UK inflation target
recently got shoogled about. This is an unfortunate omission that implies Scottish
interests aren’t formally recognised in any shape or form whatsoever in current
monetary policy setting arrangements (the Scottish Bank of England agent’s
reports on current business conditions being for info only and appearing to be comparable
in importance to say the latest view from Cornwall).
Thereafter
the paper goes mad for the bias when it sets out what the current options are
for Scotland.
The first
is a formal sterling currency union, except “An independent Scottish state
would therefore need to agree a negotiated set of constraints on its economic
and fiscal policies. In practice this would be likely to require rigorous
oversight of Scotland’s
economic and fiscal plans by both the new Scottish and the continuing UK
authorities”.
Cool. And?
Like is the strawman seriously being presented here that being independent doesn’t
mean you get to do what you like? Besides, using a practical example drawn from
Alastair Darling’s recent pro-union speech; can anyone seriously envisage an
independent Scotland having
as disproportionately large a military budget relative to the size of its
economy, as the current UK
lot? No, me neither i.e. there’s clear scope for an independent Scotland to
reallocate public spending to more productive less wasteful things within the
confines of any “negotiated constraints” e.g. it tasking Scottish tradesmen to build
social housing rather than invading yet another country.
Then there’s
the next option of “sterlingisation”, which would be to “use sterling
unilaterally, with no formal agreement with the continuing UK”. Except,
this is just wrong. No seriously, this is utterly, totally misrepresented
wrong. I mean c’mon, “sterlingisation” is a makey uppy word for an arrangement
that already exists and is called a “currency board”. Here let me repeat that,
there’s no such thing as “Sterlingisation”, but there are things called a CURRENCY
BOARD ya big fanny. And to give some real world examples, Denmark operates this kind of arrangement right
now as does Bulgaria while Ireland ran one
for decades. Similarly, Hong Kong unilaterally adopted the US dollar as its go to currency i.e.
there are clear, obvious, real, lessons can be learned, practical, sustained examples
of this approach being taken by economies comparable in size and complexity to Scotland.
But, are
they relevant? Thankfully, the Treasury offers to guide us - away from the
facts - by stating a “number of smaller countries have opted for this approach,
but it would be likely to be too constraining for a country of the financial
complexity of an independent Scottish state”. So yeah Denmark, yeah Bulgaria,
yeah Ireland, yeah global
financial and trade centre Hong Kong, you just ain’t as big or as clever as Scotland. How’d
d’ya like ‘dem apples?
As for the
other two options, well one is joining the Euro, which means you’re having a
laugh over a 1-5 year time frame, while the last is establishing an independent
currency, except why bother when a formal union and/or a currency board make
much more sense?
Funnily
enough, the paper devotes 18 pages to a currency union, 12 to joining the Euro,
16 to a Scottish currency, but only 8 to a currency board. Hmmm, so one of the
two most obvious options and what would be the fall back position in any negotiation
gets significantly less attention, hmmm………. bias, prejudice, bias ……..
Anyhoo,
there’s other stuff as well about what the lender of last resort for banks would
be in an independent Scotland, except the chat is just shite. Like, the Fortis
Bank example made two things perfectly clear, 1) no one had a scoob what do to
when a multinational European bank failed and 2) since then the EU has been
developing an approach to managing exactly that situation with banks setting up
“living will” teams to set out how them failing could be managed i.e. the
Treasury paper is presenting things no one knew how to sort out when they arose
a coupla years back as if they could be considered unique to an independent
Scotland, then ignores the practical work being done to address them anyway.
Really, the
question “Scotland
analysis: Currency and monetary policy” poses is why are government departments
being ordered, at our expense, to trot out such utterly rank shite.
P.S. from
what I’ve read so far the pro-independence chat on all this is utterly shite an'all.